Newsletter

CCM Blockchain Newsletter (April 28, 2025)

The stock market rebounded last week as bitcoin ripped above $95,000.

Christian Lopez

28 Apr 2025 — 6 min read

Happy Monday everyone, and welcome back to this week’s market newsletter. Please see below this week’s market data.

CCM Digital Weekly Market Update (2025.04.25)

CCM Digital Weekly Market Update (2025.04.25).pdf

3 MB

Bitcoin Market Update and News

Bitcoin breaks above $90,000: Bitcoin surged last week, rising to $95,000 by market close on Friday. At the time of writing, bitcoin is up 8.6% week-over-week at $94,700.
Tether, SoftBank, and Cantor team up for bitcoin strategy company: With backing from Tether and SoftBank, the newly formed Twenty One Capital has entered into an agreement to merge with Cantor Equity Partners, a SPAC sponsored by Cantor Fitzgerald. Tether and the exchange Bitfinex, which share a parent company in iFinex Inc., hold majority stakes in Twenty One Capital, while SoftBank retains significant minority ownership. The company is seeking to raise $585 million, $385 million through convertible senior notes and another $200 through common equity PIPE financing. Twenty One Capital currently holds 31,500 BTC (~$2.95 billion), but it plans to purchase additional coins to launch with a treasury of 42,000 BTC.
Ark raises bitcoin price target for 2030: Ark Invest has updated its long-term forecast for bitcoin, providing a bold price prediction for 2030. The investment management firm has set a bear case price target of $500,000 for 2030, base case of $1.2 million, and bull case of $2.4 million. “Institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case,” the report reads, adding that Ark believes that bitcoin’s digital gold “use case has the greatest potential for capital accrual.”

Interesting Reads and Videos

Bitcoin Mining Market News and Trends

Bitmain partner Antalpha files for U.S. IPO: Antalpha Holding Company, Bitmain’s chief financing partner, is gunning for an initial public offering (IPO) on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANTA. The company is targeting a $50 million raise and Roth Capital and Compass Point are underwriting the offering. The company, which provides ASIC financing and bitcoin-backed loans, had a loan book worth $1.63 billion at the end of 2024 and earned $47.5 million in revenue during the year. 77.4% of its client base in 2024 came from Asia, versus 6.9% in the Americas.
Riot, Bitdeer tap into loan facilities: Two of the largest public miners are taking on debt to finance their expansions and general operations. Riot has drawn a $100 million bitcoin-backed loan from Coinbase at a variable rate (4.5% plus the greater of 3.25% or the Federal Fund Rate’s upper limit) with a 364 day maturity. Bitdeer has entered into a revolving $200 million lending agreement with Matrixport, a financing firm founded by Bitdeer founder and CEO Jihan Wu, which is backed by Bitdeer’s Sealminer ASIC line. Bitdeer has drawn $43 million from the facility, which carries a floating rate of 9% and a 24-month maturity schedule.

Market Overview

Stocks surge: The U.S. stock market recovered sharply last week for one of the best weekly returns of the year. Tech stocks led the rise, with the Nasdaq increasing the most of the major indices and the S&P 500’s tech basket up roughly 8%.
- S&P 500: $5,525.21 (+4.6%)
- Dow: $40,113.50 (+2.5%)
- Nasdaq: $17,382.94 (6.7%)
- Russell 2000: 1,957.62 (+4.6%)
U.S. oil flat while U.K. falls: U.S. oil prices were flat last week, with WTI Crude rising a measly 0.14% to $63.15/barrel. Meanwhile, Brent Crude fell 2.5% to $66/barrel. The indices are down 13.7% and 11.7% respectively year-to-date.
Earnings growth stronger than expected in Q1: According to FactSet, Q1 earnings for S&P 500 companies are coming in stronger than expected. The S&P 500 is reporting a year-over-year earnings growth of 10.1% for Q1 2025, marking the second consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. This is above the initial estimate of 7.3% at the quarter's end. Of the 36% of companies that have reported thus far, 73% have beaten earnings per share estimates (the 5-year average is 77%). Every sector except for Industrials have had positive revenue growth year-over-year so far.

Yields fall as bonds rally: Volatility continues to reign over the bond market. U.S. Treasury bonds climbed last week, pushing yields down substantially. The 10-year fell 0.09% to 4.24%, while the 5-year fell 0.07% to 3.87%. The 2-year closed down 0.04% at 3.76% after peaking at 3.88% earlier in the week.
The International Monetary Fund revises global GDP growth downward: The International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook report pares back its forecast for 2025 global GDP growth. The IMF now expects 2.8% global GDP growth in 2025, versus its 3.3% forecast from January. This marks the slowest GDP expansion since the COVID-19 pandemic and the second-worst since 2009, driven primarily by U.S. tariffs and rising trade tensions. The IMF projects the following 2025 GDPs (with previous forecasts in parentheses)
- United States: 1.8% (2.7%)
- United Kingdom: 1.1% (1.6%)
- Euro Area: 0.8% (1.2%)
- Russia: 1.5% (1.8%)
- Asia: 3.9% (4.5%)
- China: 4.1% (4.3%)
March home sales slump to their lowest since 2009: The National Association of Realtors reported that home sales slowed significantly in March. Previously owned home sales fell in March by 5.9% from February to 4.02 million on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, marking the biggest March lull since 2009. Sales were down 2.4% year-over-year and fell across all regions, with the West being the hardest hit at 9%. Analysts cited elevated mortgage rates and affordability fears for the dip in home sales, which is the continuation of a downward trend that began in Q1 2022.

Source: National Association of Realtors

Developed market activity falls to lowest level since 2023 in April, hits 16-month low in U.S.: S&P Global’s April flash PMI data indicated that output growth in developed economies hit its lowest level since 2023, signaling a slowdown in economic momentum. Business confidence also slumped to near its lowest since 2022 as concerns over tariff impacts and policy uncertainty loom. The S&P Global US Flash Composite PMI Output Index fell to 51.2 in April, down from 53.5 in March. This is the lowest level in 16 months, although it is still above the index’s threshold for expansion (50).

The week ahead in data:

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Tuesday)
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index (Tuesday)
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (Tuesday)
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis advanced estimate of Q1 GDP (Wednesday)
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Wednesday)
ADP National Employment Report (Wednesday)
National Associations of Realtors pending home sales report (Wednesday)
Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index (Thursday)
U.S. Census Bureau construction spending report (Thursday)
U.S. Department of Labor unemployment claims (Thursday)
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs and unemployment report (Friday)
U.S. Census Bureau factory orders report (Friday)

Notable corporate earnings this week: