Happy Monday everyone, and welcome back to this week’s market newsletter. Please see below this week’s market data.

Bitcoin Market Update and News

• Bitcoin takes a hit: Bitcoin fell last week, declining to a three-week low of ~$120,700 over the weekend. At the time of publication, Bitcoin is down 2.4% WoW to $115,100.
• SEC approves in-kind redemptions for Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has finally approved in-kind redemptions for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. The change is in line with standards that are common for other commodity ETFs.
• PayPal launches Pay with Crypto feature: PayPal launched its Pay with Crypto feature last week, which will soon allow PayPal users to pay with bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at qualifying U.S. merchants. The feature supports Bitcoin, Ethereum, PayPal USD (PYUSD), and a handful of other cryptocurrencies, will be available in the coming weeks, and includes integration with external wallets like Coinbase and MetaMask. 

Interesting Reads and Videos

• Bitmain Funnels 187 Tons of Antminer Parts to Skirt US Tariffs
• Crypto products record $1.9 billion weekly inflows, $11.2 billion MTD: Coinshares
• Metaplanet, Strategy, and the Corporate Treasury Bitcoin Race

 Bitcoin Treasury Company News and Updates

• Verb eyes $558M to establish first TON treasury: Verb Technology Company (NASDAQ: VERB) has launched a $558 private placement to establish the first ever Toncoin (TON) treasury. The company expects the transaction to close on August 7 and plans to rebrand itself as the TON Strategy Company.
• Strategy reports $14 billion unrealized gain on BTC holdings; STRC offering is largest IPO of 2025:  Last week, Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) reported a $14 billion unrealized gain on its BTC treasury and $114.5 million in revenue for Q2, and it reported a total of ~628,791 BTC at the end of the quarter. The company also announced that its preferred stock, STRC, pulled in $2.5 billion from its IPO, a record so far for 2025. 

• Metaplanet files for $3.7 billion shelf offering: Metaplanet filed a shelf registration statement for up to ¥555 billion ($3.7 billion) of perpetual preferred shares. The offering could include an equal share of class A and class B preferred shares with interest payments at or below 6%. 
• Twenty One to add 5,800 BTC from Tether: Jack Maller’s Twenty One Capital, which is pending a public listing via the SPAC Cantor Equity Partners (NASDAQ: CEP), said that it plans to receive ~5,800 BTC from Tether at the close of its business combination with CEP. Tether is a major shareholder in Twenty One, and after the injection of new BTC, Twenty One is expected to have more than 43,500 BTC, the third largest corporate Bitcoin treasury. 
• Sequans adds 755 BTC to treasury: Sequans (NYSE: SQNS), a Paris-based fabless semiconductor firm, added 755 Bitcoin (purchased for $88.5 million) to its Bitcoin treasury. The company now holds 3,072 BTC, all of which it purchased from a $384 million raise consisting of equity and convertible debt.  

Market Overview

• Equities take a hit: Stocks fell last week after multiple weeks of positive price action that sent them to record highs, weighed down by a weak jobs report for July (as well as significant revisions for May and June’s numbers) and the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady. 
  • S&P 500: $6,238.01 (-2.4%)
  • Dow: $43,588.58 (-2.9%)
  • Nasdaq: $20,650.13 (-2.2%) 
  • Russell 2000: $2,166.78  (-4.2%)
• Q2 earnings forecast revised upward after strong initial results: Roughly 2/3rd of all S&P 500 companies have reported their earnings, prompting analysts to revise their expectations upward after strong initial reports. Per FactSet, the blended rate so far for Q2 shows a 10.3% increase YoY and a 6% increase to revenues YoY. 82% of reporting companies beat earnings-per-share estimates, 79% beat revenue estimates, and 8 out of 11 sectors show earnings growth. Communications, Information Technology, and Finance are leading growth, while Energy is lagging. Consensus expectations are forecasting 7.6% and 7% growth in Q3 and Q4, respectively. 

• Fed keeps rates steady as it's “pulled in two directions”: The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee decided to keep rates unchanged last week, with only two members voting to lower rates. Chair Jerome Powell described the Fed’s policy as “moderately restrictive” and that the central bank is being “pulled in two directions” with inflation still elevated as the job market softens. Powell also said that the Fed will continue to taper its Treasury and Mortgage-Backed Securities portfolio. 
• July employment is lackluster while May, June numbers are revised down significantly: The July employment report revealed that the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs last month. Healthcare accounted for the lion’s share of gains at 55,000, followed by 18,000 in social assistance, 15,700 in retail trade, 15,000 in finance, 5,000 in leisure and hospitality, 5,800 in private education, 3,600 in transportation and warehousing, and 2,000 in construction. Meanwhile, employment in other sectors drooped, including a loss of 14,000 in professional and business services, 12,000 in federal government employment, 11,000 in manufacturing, and 7,800 in wholesale trade. Additionally, May and June’s numbers were revised downward respectively by 125,000 (from 144,000 to 19,000) and 133,000 (147,000 to 14,000). The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, and hourly earnings increased 0.3% MoM and 3.9% YoY to $36.44/hour.

• GDP rebounds in Q2 as imports decline: The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ first read for Q2 GDP came in at 3%, a significant rebound from Q1’s -0.5% read. In a reversal from the expedited importations that dragged down Q1’s number, the growth came in large part from a decrease in imports in Q2 as well as strong consumer spending. Additionally, one of the main drivers behind Q2’s GDP is AI CAPEX spending, which outpaced consumer spending. Real final sales to private domestic purchases increased 1.2%, and consumer services and pharmaceuticals spurred gains, while private inventories and goods exports (particularly, autos) declined. The PCE index rose 2.1% with core PCE rising 2.5%, while the gross domestic purchases price index increased 1.9%. 

• White House issues executive order for August 7 tariff schedule: President Trump issued an executive order last week for a revised reciprocal tariff schedule that is set to go into effect August 7. A number of key trading partners face elevated rates above the 10% blanket rate instituted during the reprieve period, but most countries face 15% duties. The U.S. reached a preliminary deal with South Korea to scale tariffs down to 15% plus investment guarantees, and negotiations are ongoing with China, Canada, India, Mexico, and Brazil. 
• Construction spending dips as composite home price index cools: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index rose YoY in May but fell MoM, reemphasizing softening demand in the housing market at a time when housing prices are at-or-near all-time highs while mortgage rates are at their highest in two decades. The index rose 2.8% YoY but was down from 3.4% in April. New York led for rising markets at 7.4% YoY, while Tampa brought up the rear for laggards at -2.4% YoY. Meanwhile, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that construction spending totaled $2.136 trillion in June, a decline of 0.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY. Private construction totaled $1.622 trillion (-0.5% MoM), split between $883.1 billion for residential (-0.7% MoM) and $738.8 billion for nonresidential (-0.3%). Public construction increased 0.1% MoM to $514.3 billion. 

• Consumer confidence and sentiment moderates in July: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose modestly last month, incresing 2 points to 97.2 from June. Expectations rose 4.5 points to 74.4, which is still below the 80 threshold that the Conference Board uses as a risk indicator for recession. The share of respondents saying that “jobs are hard to get” rose to 18.9%, the highest since March 2021. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for July rose to 61.7 from 60.7 in June.
• Manufacturing contracts once again in July: The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 48 in July, down 1 point from June and the fifth straight month of contraction with only 7 out of 18 industries reporting growth for the month. Production rose back into expansion territory to 51.4 while employment contracted again to 43.4. Inventories contracted to 48.9 while prices continued to rise at 64.8, albeit at a slower pace than June’s 69.7.
• Oil rebounds: Oil prices rose last week following the prior week’s news of a U.S.-EU trade deal and as the U.S. threatens to impose secondary sanctions and elevated tariffs on Russia if the country does not make progress on peace negotiations with Ukraine.
  • WTI Crude: $67.33/barrel (+3.3%)
  • Brent Crude: $69.67/barrel (+1.8%)

The week ahead in data:

• U.S. Census Bureau factory orders report (Monday)
• U.S. Census Bureau trade balance report (Tuesday)
• Institute for Supply Management nonmanufacturing index (Tuesday)
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics productivity and labor costs report (Thursday)
• U.S. Census Bureau wholesale inventories report (Thursday)
• Federal Reserve consumer credit report (Thursday)
• U.S. Department of Labor weekly jobs report (Thursday)

Notable corporate earnings this week:

• Palantir (Monday)
• Wayfair (Monday)
• BioNTech (Monday)
• ZoomInfo (Monday)
• AMD (Tuesday)
• Pfizer (Tuesday)
• Caterpillar (Tuesday)
• Super Micro Computing (Tuesday)
• Rivian (Tuesday) 
• Disney (Wednesday) 
• McDonald’s (Wednesday) 
• Uber (Wednesday) 
• Novo Nordisk (Wednesday) 
• Block (Thursday)
• Occidental Petroleum (Thursday)
• Eli Lilly (Thursday)
• Toyota (Thursday)
• Gilead Sciences (Thursday)
• Under Armour (Friday)
• Wendy’s (Friday)
• AMC (Friday)

Thank you for reading, and please feel free to reach out with any questions.