Newsletter

CCM Blockchain Newsletter (March 10, 2025)

Broader market volatility continued last week, and the U.S. established a bitcoin reserve.

Christian Lopez

10 Mar 2025 — 6 min read

Happy Monday everyone, and welcome back to this week’s market newsletter. Please see below this week’s market data.

CCM Digital Weekly Market Update (2025.03.07)

CCM Digital Weekly Market Update (2025.03.07).pdf

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Bitcoin Market Update and News

Bitcoin takes huge hit, falls below $80,000: Bitcoin opened last week above $90,000, only to plummet back to ~$82,000 and rise back above $90,000 and back down to the $80,000s again. At the time of writing, bitcoin is down 11% to $78,000.
Crypto-backed mortgage lender Milo surpasses $65 million in volume: Milo, a fintech firm that offers crypto-backed home loans, has surpassed $65 million in total loan volume. The company offers BTC and ETH-backed loans and is a testament to the growing interest in crypto-collateralized debt vehicles.
Trump signs executive order for Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: President Trump signed an executive order last week to formally establish a U.S. bitcoin stockpile, a selling point in his campaign to bitcoin proponents. The reserve will consist of roughly 200,000 BTC that the United States seized from the 2106 Bitfinex hack, Silk Road, and other dark web markets. The order also mandates that the Treasury evaluate methods to add bitcoin to the stockpile so long as doing so is “budget neutral,” something that the government may be able to do via the U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund.

Interesting Reads and Videos

Bitcoin Mining Market News and Trends

US authorities begin releasing some seized cryptocurrency miners: The U.S. Border and Protection Agency has started releasing previously detained ASIC miner imports. The agency started detaining ASICs in ports of entry across the United States last September, and it escalated this action to seizures with certain imports in 2025. According to companies affected by the detentions, the CBP has started releasing some of these units, but some detentions and seizures are still outstanding.
Major public miners spent nearly $5 billion on PP&E in 2024: Ten of the major public miners spent $4.95 billion on property, plant, and equipment in 2024 (2024 earnings from public miners are still trickling in, so this number will rise), up from $1.2 billion in 2023. Over $3 billion of this PP&E went to ASIC miner orders.

Market Overview

Market rout continues as major indices post steep declines: Equities continued to fall last week, as the market quivers with uncertainty amid a looming global trade war. The S&P 500 fell by its largest margin since last September, and the Dow and Nasdaq fared even worse. S&P 500 stocks related to consumer discretionary spending have fallen 10.7% YTD, leading the market decline narrowly ahead of tech stocks, which have fallen 7.8%.
- S&P 500: 5,770.20 (-3.32%)
- Dow: 42,801.72 (-2.5%)
- Nasdaq: 18,196.22 (-3.80%)
- Russell 2000: 2,075.48 (-4.27%)

Dollar records largest decline in two years: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped 2.88% last week to 103.67, the biggest free fall since November 2022. Year-to-date, the DXY is down 4.43%, and it is barely up year-over-year at 0.93%. With the dollar depreciating against other major currencies, the euro experienced its largest gain against it since November 2022 as well, while the pound gained against it marginally. The euro's gains against the dollar come even as the European Central Bank agreed to lower rates to 2.5%, the sixth cut in a row.
First round of Trump’s tariffs go into effect: The Trump administration instituted 25% tariffs on certain goods – such as those that don’t meet USMCA rules of origin – from Canada and Mexico last week, plus a 10% levy on Canadian energy and potash products, but the administration paused the full schedule of its proposed tariffs against both countries until April 1. A 25% tariff on all foreign aluminum, steel, copper, and lumber took effect, as did an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Underscoring the anxieties around the Trump administration’s proposed tariffs, the U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Index has gone parabolic to its highest point since 2019.

U.S. trade deficit widened in January: Per the U.S. Census Bureau’s U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for January, the U.S. trade deficit for goods and services rose significantly to $131.4 billion in January 2025, a steep increase of $33.3 billion from the revised December 2024 figure of $98.1 billion. This marked a substantial widening of the trade gap. Compared to January 2024, the goods and services deficit grew by $64.5 billion (96.5%), with exports up $10.6 billion (4.1%) and imports up $75.2 billion (23.1%). The three month average for the goods and services deficit increased by $19.2 billion to $102.6 billion.
January construction spending, manufacturing, and factory orders offer mixed outlook: A handful of reports on construction spending, manufacturing outlook, and factory orders that were released last week paint a splotchy picture for U.S. economic outlook.
- U.S. Census Bureau Construction Spending Report
  - Total construction spending was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.179.8 trillion, down 0.2% from the revised December 2024 estimate of $2.184.1 trillion, but still 4.0% above the January 2024 estimate of $2.095.7 trillion. Private construction spending reached $1.673.8 trillion, a 0.1% decline from December’s $1.676 trillion. Residential spending dropped 0.6% to $923.8 billion, while nonresidential spending rose 0.5% to $750.0 billion.
- Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index
  - The index for new orders dropped significantly to 48.6 from 55.1, slipping into contraction territory and signaling weakening demand. PMI hit 50.3, a decrease from 50.9 in January, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity and falling short of expectations. The employment index fell from 50.3 to 47.6 as manufacturing jobs decreased, possibly due to cost pressures (the prices paid index jumped from 56.2 to 62.4). The production index rose to 51.2 from 52.8, still expanding but at a slower pace than prior reports.
- U.S. Census Bureau Factory Orders Report
  - New orders increased 0.8% to $592.6 billion (seasonally adjusted) from December 2024’s revised $587.9 billion, driven primarily by transportation equipment. Shipments rose 0.4% to $586.3 billion, while inventories increased 0.2% to $863.7 billion.
Oil has worst decline in 17 months while natural gas surges:
- U.S. oil prices plummeted last week, with WTI Crude closing down 4.83% to $66.74/barrel, the steepest decline since October 2023. This loss accelerated 2025’s selloff, with the index down 8.74% YTD and 14.36% YoY.
- The Henry Hub spiked 14.1% to $4.45 last week. The index is up 30.9% year-to-date and 194.7% year-over-year.
Market now expects the Fed to cut rates three times this year: With indicators flashing warning signs as the market tumbles and the economy slows, market participants are now anticipating three rate cuts in 2025 to 3.7%, instead of prior expectations for a single rate cut to 4.25%. Despite shifting expectations, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that the Fed intends to stay on course with moderate cuts this year.

Treasury yields rebound: Treasury yields jumped last week with the 10-year’s yield curve with the 5-year and 2-year stiffening. Treasury yields have fallen significantly year-to-date, and the reversal comes on the news of the Fed’s continued hawkish stance (despite market expectations), tariff-induced inflation and deficit fears, and mixed economic signals.
- 10-Year: 4.30% (+0.1%)
- 5-Year: 4.06% (+0.05%)
- 2-Year: 4.0% (+0.01%)

The week ahead in data:

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Tuesday)
National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index (Tuesday)
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistic Consumer Price Index (Wednesday)
U.S Department of Treasury Federal budget release (Wednesday)
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistic Producer Price Index (Thursday)
U.S. Department of Labor weekly unemployment claims (Thursday)
Fed Balance Sheet report (Thursday)
University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment preliminary (Friday)

Notable corporate earnings this week: