Newsletter

CCM Blockchain Newsletter (May 5, 2025)

Stocks rose for the second week in a row on April's better-than-expected jobs report.

05 May 2025 — 5 min read

Happy Monday everyone, and welcome back to this week’s market newsletter. Please see below this week’s market data.

Bitcoin Market Update and News

Bitcoin eyes $100,000: Bitcoin rose again last week, topping out at $97,500 before retreating back to $95,000 over the weekend. At the time of writing, bitcoin is up 0.1% week-over-week at $95,100.
Trump’s first 100 days of second term marked by positives for crypto industry: The first 100 days for Trump’s second term are in the books, and they included a flurry of positive policy moves and appointments for the crypto industry. In addition to the landmark executive order for a strategic bitcoin reserve, the administration also dismantled Biden-era policies that were central to Operation Chokepoint 2.0, which oversaw the widespread debanking of crypto firms and the forced closure of Signature bank, and has made a number of crypto friendly cabinet appointments.
Strategy reports net loss in Q1, eyes $21 billion bitcoin buy: Strategy posted a $4.2 billion loss for Q1 as it wrote down $5.9 billion largely thanks to a quarterly decline in the value of its bitcoin holdings. The OG bitcoin treasury strategy company, which currently holds 553,555 BTC, announced it is selling equity to raise funds to purchase another $21 billion in bitcoin.

Tether Eyes $25 Million Stake in Upcoming Antalpha IPO: The issuer of the world’s premier stablecoin, Tether, is gearing up for a $25 million dollar stake in Antalpha, the financing partner of bitcoin mining ASIC manufacturer Bitmain, which filed for an IPO on the Nasdaq exchange in April. Tether’s intent would give it additional exposure to the bitcoin mining industry as the company recently upped its stake in publicly traded Bitdeer.
Galaxy Expands CoreWeave Deal, Accelerates Shift From Bitcoin Mining to AI Hosting: Cloud computing firm CoreWeave has exercised a 260 MW option at Galaxy’s helios facility, expanding its total contracted capacity for IT load at the site to 393 MW. CoreWeave is leasing the capacity for 15 years in the multi-billion dollar deal.
Bit Digital Eyes $500M ATM as Bitcoin Mining Economics Tighten: Bit Digital, a public bitcoin miner that has leaned aggressively into an AI/HPC business line, has filed for a $500 million at the market equity offering. The company’s market capitalization is $385.6 million at the time of writing. BitDigital recently announced that it has leased a site for a new 5 MW build for AI services. The lease is for 20 years and includes a fixed-price purchase option exercisable in the first year of the contract as well as two 5-year options for extension.

Stocks rally for second week in a row: The U.S. stock market recovered once again last week, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 scrubbing away their April losses.
- S&P 500: $5,686.67 (+4.6%)
- Dow: $41,317.43 (+3%)
- Nasdaq: $17,977.73 (+3.4%)
- Russell 2000: 2,020.74 (+2.3%)
Oil plummets: WTI Crude and Brent Crude both fell precipitously last week, each falling 8% to $58.29/barrel and $61.29/barrel respectively. The declines come amid flagging demand and signals of increased output from OPEC.
Q1 earnings growth expectations continue to rise: FactSet has revised its Q1 earnings for S&P 500 companies upward once again. The software and research firm now expects an average of 12.8% earnings growth for S&P 500 companies. FactSet’s previously estimated 10.1% growth, which itself was revised from the initial estimate of 7.3% at the quarter's end. 72% of companies have reported thus far, of which 76% have reported a positive earnings per share surprise and another 62% a positive revenue surprise. FactSet expects Healthcare (+42.7%), Communications Services (+27.9%), and Information Technology (+17.5%) to experience the highest year-over-year earnings growth.

Q1 GDP contracts: A preliminary report for Q1 had U.S. GDP falling 0.3% year-over-year, the first negative print since Q1 2022. As I’ve covered in previous newsletters, manufacturers expedited imports last quarter in response to the Trump administration’s tariff policy, leading to the deficit.
IMF downgrades U.S. imports forecasts: The International Monetary Fund expects exports into the U.S. to fall significantly for many key trading partners. The April 2025 forecast for Mexico, South Korea, Canada, and China have been adjusted downward from the prior forecast in October 2024 respectively to -1.7%, -1%, -0.6%, and -0.6%. Of these partners, Mexico’s share of GDP from U.S. business is the highest of the bunch at ~27%.

Labor market beats expectations in April: The April employment report exceeded economists’ expectations, posting positive results for the second month in a row. The labor market added 177,000 new jobs in April, well above estimates. The unemployment rate was unmoved at 4.2%
Consumer sentiment skittish in April: Fears over the economy continue to weigh on consumers. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for April read at 86, a steep decline from 92.9 in March, the fifth drop in a row, and the lowest for the index since May 2020. The Expectations Index dropped 12.5 points to 54.4, which is the lowest print since October 2011. 32.1% of respondents expected a weaker job market over the next six months and the number of respondents expecting a recession rose to its highest level in two years.
Fed rate cut probability drops after positive April job report: Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in June have fallen significantly in light of April’s stronger-than-expected job growth. The CME FedWatch tool now reports a 33% probability of a rate cut in June versus 55% before the jobs report. The Federal Reserve will meet this week to discuss its next move, and investors still expect a minimum of three 0.25% cuts before the year is out.