Happy Monday, all, and welcome back to this week’s market newsletter.

Market Overview

• Equities bounce from prior week’s correction: The U.S. stock market’s triumvirate stock indices closed last week in the green, rising slightly from their post-election corrections from all-time highs the week prior. The Dow closed at an all-time high of 44,2961.51 (+1%), the S&P 500 at 5,969.34 (+0.3%), and the NASDAQ at 19,003.65 (+1.7%). Small cap stocks rallied even more, with the Russell 2000 closing at 2,406.67 (+4.5%).
• Consumer sentiment rises, but falls short of expectations: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose by 1.3 over November to 71.8, but this was still below the forecast of 73.9."The expectations index surged for Republicans and fell for Democrats this month, a reflection of the two groups' incongruous views of how Trump's policies will influence the economy,” said University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.
• Oil, natural gas prices surge:
  • Oil prices increased significantly last week, with tensions heating between the Unites States and Russia as a political backdrop. Brent crude closed last week at $75.09, a 5.15% increase over the week. This rise followed the prior week’s decrease of 3.83%.
  • As with oil, so with gas. The Hunry Hub spot price rose for the second week in a row, ratcheting up a staggering 16% to $2.08/MMBtu. 
• 10-year falls, 5-year stagnates, 2-year rises: U.S. treasuries had mixed movements last week. Week-over-week at market close on November 22, the 10-year dropped three basis points to 4.41%, the 5-year remained unchanged at 4.30%, and the 2-year rose 6 basis points to 4.37%.
• Earning on track to rise in 2025: Per findings from Edward Jones, corporate profits are on the up-and-up, rising 9% so far this year from a flat performance in 2023. Edward Jones forecasts that these earnings could rise still to 10-15% in 2025. 

What to look out for this week:

• Latest S&P and Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index (Tuesday)
• The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (Tuesday)
• U.S. Census Bureau new home sales report (Tuesday)
• Federal Reserve minutes from most recent meeting (Tuesday)
• Inflation report and updated government estimate on Q3 GDP growth (Wednesday)
• National association of realtors pending home sales (Wednesday)
• U.S. Department of Labor weekly unemployment claims (Wednesday)

Notable corporate earnings this week:

• Agilent Technologies (Tuesday)
• CrowdStrike (Wednesday)
• Dell (Wednesday)
• HP (Wednesday)
• Best Buy (Wednesday)
• Macy’s (Wednesday) 
• Nordstrom (Wednesday) 
• Gap (Thursday)

Bitcoin Market Update

• Bitcoin continued its eye-popping rally last week, rising to yet another all-time high of ~$99,500 on Friday as all eyes and anticipation are on $100,000.
  • Amid a host of other tailwinds for the cryptocurrency, bitcoin proponents are eagerly awaiting whether or not President Trump will make good on his promise to establish a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve, something he spoke about at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), one of the oldest allies of the Bitcoin industry in Washington, has been vocal about prioritizing such a reverse now that Trump has secured the 47th presidency. 
• Cantor Fitzgerald now owns 5% of Tether, the largest stablecoin provider in the industry, and it could soon offer bitcoin-collateralized loans. “Cantor Fitzgerald LP is discussing receiving support from Tether for its planned multibillion-dollar program to lend dollars to clients who put up Bitcoin as collateral, said the people, who asked not to be named as they were not authorized to speak publicly,” Bloomberg reported last week, adding that Cantor Fitzgerald plans to commit $2 billion to the funding program to start.
• There’s a new gold in town. Less than one year since launch, bitcoin ETFs are closing in on the AUM of gold ETFs. As of November 21, bitcoin ETFs had a total value of $104 billion, versus $121.65 billion for gold.

Interesting Reads and Videos

• Millennium, Capula, Tudor pile bitcoin ETFs into portfolios
• Bitcoin nears $100,000 as SEC chair Gary Gensler announces he will step down
• Here’s what Trump’s treasury secretary pick thinks about Bitcoin

 Bitcoin Mining Market News and Trends

• Hashprice – a measure of mining revenue per unit of compute – continued to rise last week alongside bitcoin’s price. At the time of writing, hashprice is up to ~$61.20/PH/day, a hefty week-over-week change of 7%. 
• According to analysts at S3 Research, there were $4.6 billion in shorts open against public mining stock as of November 15, a 50% increase from just the prior month. The shorts are a risky bet given bitcoin’s current bullrun; even with AI becoming the new investment thesis du jour, mining stocks will follow bitcoin’s price, and with bitcoin on the cusp of $100,000, these positions risk a short squeeze.
• MARA, the largest public bitcoin miners by hashrate under management, is going the way of Microstrategy. The company announced last week that it has completed a $1 billion 0% convert note offering. Out of the $980 million in net proceeds from the note, MARA intends to use $190 to purchase back $212 million of existing convertible notes due in 2026, while it will use the rest to purchase bitcoin. 
• $IBIT ETF options saw $1.9 billion in notional traded on first day, with more than three quarters of all volume coming from calls.

Please see this week’s BTC Mining Market Data update attached below.

Thank you for reading, and please feel free to reach out with any questions.

Christian Lopez